IPCC 4: Part II: Report of Doom
In the talks that I've given recently, I try not to focus too much on the doom-oriented aspects of climate change. I give them a mention, but I think it's more useful to talk about the ways that reducing our greenhouse gas emissions can make for a better Springfield--more comfortable, more affordable, better for business.
That said, it's important to not let the bigger picture slip by, since that's what makes the problem so urgent. The big news the past couple of days has been the leak of an early draft of the second part of the IPCC's fourth round report. That's a mouthful, but it's important. The IPCC--the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change--was commissioned by the UN in 1988 to study climate change, and is probably one of the largest scientific endeavors ever. It synthesizes the state of climate change knowledge in rounds, and it's in the process of releasing the results of the fourth round now. A little over a month ago, it released the first part of the fourth round report, looking at the what we know about humanity's contribution to climate change (a lot, and what we know is that we're very certain--more than 90% certain--that we're contributing to the current warming).
The second half of the report, not due for another couple of months, looks at what impacts we're already experiencing and what we can expect in the future. Let's reiterate that: we're already experiencing climate change. It is not something that happens exclusively in the future. However, the future has even more in store for us, and there's not much good news. Droughts, flooding, famine, and no more habitats for polar bears.

What does this mean for Illinois? It's hard to know. So far, most of the attention has gone to Africa and Latin America, which are set to get hit the hardest in the near future. However, a couple of years ago, the Union of Concerned Scientists put together prospects for states in the Great Lakes region, including Illinois. This doesn't have the same heft at the IPCC, but it is specific to us. (Sadly, it's a little undercut by projecting out to 2100 only under a business-as-usual scenario, and not looking at the impacts under reduced emissions.) The basic idea? By 2100, Illinois's climate will be like that of present-day Oklahoma.



